Jose Fernandez: Baseballs newest young ace

Jose Fernandez does what he does best

When the Miami Marlins called up Jose Fernandez the move was met with a lot of criticism. But it has been a move that has surprisingly worked out for the Marlins as he is the likely Rookie of the Year in the National League.

His stats are incredible for a dismal Miami team: 12-6, 2.19 ERA and 187 strikeouts and he was an all-star. If you look at the advanced stats his numbers are even more incredible as he has a 177 ERA+ and hitters are hitting .182/.257/.265 against him and that is a .522 OPS. He strikes out batters at a 27.5% rate and walks hitters at a 8.5% rate. He only averages 3.83 Pitches per Plate Appearance. If you use run-converting metrics he would have a 3.44 ERA in an environment like the 2000 Rockies.

He is the NL Rookie of the Year even though his team is awful (54-92 with today's loss to the Atlanta Braves). He has had some issues with getting really fired up (for example yesterdays confrontation with the Braves in his final start of the season due to an innings limit)

How long has Alex Rodriguez really been declining

Alex Rodriguez had an unbelievable 2007 where he hit .314 with 54 home runs and 156 RBIs at the age of 31 but ever since then he has been at a quiet decline. If you look at the basic numbers from 2008-12 you see a player with a .282 average with 129 homers and 447 RBIs. The .282 average is well below his .300 lifetime average but the homers are pretty good. He hit 129 of his 652 home runs in that span. But if you dive into the advanced stats you can see an obvious decline. His XBH% has been down from 12% in 2007 to 9.3% between 2008-12. His AB/HR rate of 10.8 in 2007 is 17.9 between 2008-12.  After striking out 17% of the time in 2007 he has struck out 19% of the time in the same time range and has walked 11.3% compared to a 13.4% in 2007). The last time he posted a WAR above 5 was in 2008 where he had a 6.8 WAR in his last season as a truly great hitter.

His decline has also been off the field as well as he has admitted to steroids in 2009 and has recently been suspended (pending appeal) an unprecedented 211 games because of his connection to the Biogenesis scandal.

 Thanks to baseball-reference.com for providing the access to the stats.

Interview with Kevin Goldstein

Kevin Goldstein is the Pro Scouting Coordinator for the Houston Astros and a former writer for both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. He was kind enough to answer some questions I had for him about the Astros farm system.

1. Did the prior experience at Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America help you when you started out with the Astros?
It helped me get noticed and make connections and get noticed. It helped me talk to other General Managers and scouting directors and get noticed in the baseball community

2. What do you think about the Astros system?
We have one of the best systems in baseball as we have good pitchers and hitters. We have a lot of depth and we could be a good team in the next couple of seasons

3 Where do you see Carlos Correa starting the 2014 season in?
too early to say because you have to wait until spring training when all the players come in for spring training and you get a chance to evaluate them and start forming rosters.


4 who is the biggest under the radar prospect in the Astros system in your opinion
there are many prospects who have impressed us and many players considered to be under the radar prospects making an impact and having breakout seasons it makes our farm system one of the best in baseball and we are definitely going to make an impact withing the next couple seasons


5 With the Major League team struggling pitching wise this year could Mark Appel get a cup of coffee next season?
He is very talented like Carlos Correa and he has pitched well but it all depends how he performs next season.


6 With Jason Castro already been proven to be a All-Star catcher where does Max Stassi fit it the organization?
It is a nice problem to have and with Stassi having a breakout season in AA it makes it a closer competition between the two.

Did Jonathon Singletons drug suspension effect how you viewed him?

No because it was a huge mistake and he still has a ton of potential and he said it was a dumb mistake to make and next year we will see how he does and if it has effected him.

Top 10 Prospects Season Wrap-Up

Baseball Prospectus is one of the best sources for player evaluation in both the big leagues and the minor leagues and every year they release a Top 100 Prospect list. But how did they perform this season?

1. Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers
Profar split time between Round Rock and Texas. He hit .240/.316/.338 with 5 homers and 27 Runs Scored in 300 Plate Appearances for the Texas Rangers and hit .278/.370/.438 with 4 homers and 27 Runs Scored in 166 Plate Appearances for Round Rock. He played all over the place in the MLB with time in the outfield, at 3B, SS, and 2B. He has struggled a little bit defensively but that may be because of him moving all around the field.

2. Oscar Taveras, St Louis Cardinals
Taveras struggled with injuries this season but managed to hit .306/.341/.462 in 186 Plate Appearances for AAA Memphis. He made 2 Plate Appearances for the Cardinals Rookie League team as well. He hit 5 homers and scored 25 runs and he played good defense.

3. Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole made 12 starts in Indianapolis pitching to a 2.91 ERA and striking out 47 in 68 innings. He gave up only 44 hits and 22 earned runs until he was called up to the Pirates and is currently 6-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 66 strikeouts with 90 hits allowed in 91.1 innings pitched. His K/BB is actually better than it was in AAA.

4 Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
He missed the entire season due to Tommy John Surgery

5. Zack Wheeler New York Mets
Wheeler made 13 starts in Las Vegas before being called up to the Mets. He pitched 68.2 innings giving up 61 hits and striking out 73 but walking 27. Since being called up he has made 15 starts compiling 88 innings with 75 strikeouts with 39 walks. He has a 7-4 record for the Mets.

6 Jose Fernandez Miami Marlins
What bad things can you say about Fernandez. He has played the entire season with the Marlins and will easily win Rookie of the Year for an awful Miami team. He has a 2.23 ERA in 27 starts with an 11-6 record in 165.2 innings and striking out 182 with a 175 ERA+.

7. Wil Myers Tampa Bay Rays
Another prospect that came up in June and made an impact was Wil Myers who hit .286/.356/.520 in AAA Durham before getting the callup to Tampa Bay where he has hit .286/.348/.468 with 11 homers and 34 runs scored. He has shown a good eye for a 22-year old with 25 walks. He has been great defensively as well.

8. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Buxton has been having a fantastic season in the low minors with a .334/.424/.520 line in 574 between 2 levels of Class-A ball. With 18 triples and 55 Stolen Bases he is easily one of the speediest prospects in the Minor Leagues.

9. Taijuan Walker Seattle Mariners
Walker made 25 starts combined between AA and AAA and pitched to a 2.93 ERA with 160 strikeouts in 141.1 innings. He has since been called up and has made 2 starts for the Mariners with a 3.60 ERA and only 4 strikeouts in 10 innings

10 Francisco Lindor Cleveland Indians
Lindor hit .303/.380/.407 in 403 Plate Appearances between A+ and AA. He hit 7 triples and stole 25 bases while playing poor defense. He walked more times than he struck out which is outstanding for a 19 year old player in the minor leagues.

Guest Post: Cubs Season Recap

Written by: Ricky Linares

 

 

As we know, the horrid season of the Chicago Cubs is coming to a close. In my opinion the Cubs are one more bad season away before they start winning more than 70+ games.  I'd like to start off by stating my opinion on the cubs season. If you recall the cubs bullpen was awful in the beginning to midpoint of the season. Carlos Marmol, James Russell, Shawn Camp to name a few. The cubs had a chance in almost all those games. I believe that the bullpen cost the cubs at least 5 wins by blowing the lead late in the games. Besides that the cubs pitchers has done decent for a none contending team.  Jeff Samardizja has done well for his first full season as a starter. He had some great games where he was striking out players left and right. He flashes a starter at times but his pitch count would stack up fast and he would not be able to go more than 5-6 innings. Travis Wood was great in the first half almost guaranteeing a quality start every time he started but has since then fallen back to earth. One of my favorite moments of the year is when Scott Feldman had his first career complete game. I was on the edge of my seat hoping he would get done and he deserved it. When Matt Garza returned to the rotation he was stellar to say the least and was surprised he didn't get injured before being traded. He had the same velocity and the stuff looked like a 2 at times which helped the cubs get C.J Edwards, Mike Olt, Neil Ramirez and Jake Arieta. On to the Cubs young hitters. Anthony Rizzo has done nice for his first full year as a big leaguer. He has hit .230, 21 home runs, and getting on base at a .326 . Starlin Castro... His season has been an underachievement after having great seasons the past two years. He's batting .244, his onbase is not good enough to sustain batting high in the order. Once 2013 is over Castro must put this behind him and work hard this offseason. 2014 is a big year for Castro he could be traded if he's not performing. That's it for mlb players, now to down on the farm. The Cubs minor league system has been exciting to watch this year. A few highlights are Javier Baez had a four homer game in A+ Daytona, Daytona has had two no-hitters, lastly Baez,Vogelbach and Pierce Johnson were promoted after having nice seasons showing they were ready for a tougher challenge. Pierce Johnson gets my vote as pitcher of the year for the cubs minor league system. He has shown that he can handle A- Kane County dominating at times. At Kane county he through 69.2 innings allowing 109 hits striking out 84 walking 43 his average against LH and average against RH. In Daytona he has still handle the hitters with ease at times, 48.2  innings 41 hits 50 Ks and 21 walks. As for my hitter of the year Dan Vogelbach gets the nod. His stats combined with Kane county and Daytona: batting .284 19 homers OBP a stellar .375 SLG .449. Walk to K ratio discounting intentional walks was a nice 70-89. Dan has a long way to go in his journey to the show and when he does I invision him as a solid replica of David Ortiz. 

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The Quick Decline of Daniel Bard

Daniel Bard from 2009-11 was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. He rarely gave up any hits and struck out a bunch of batters. But in 2012 he suddenly struggled when he was changed into a starting pitcher. He struggled with his command and didn't strike out many batters, was eventually returned to the bullpen, and then continued to struggle in Pawtucket with his control.

In 2013 he struggled in 2 MLB relief appearances pitching 1 inning total before going back to Pawtucket. He went as far as Low-A Lowell due to his struggles in the high minors. What makes this more shocking is that he is 28 years old and should be entering, not exiting his prime.

But who is to blame? Is it the Red Sox for trying to turn him into a starter? Or is it Bard not commanding his pitches. His downfall began in 2011 after a 2.05 ERA in the first half he declined to a 5.05 second half ERA and hitters hitting .256/.396/.376 in the Red Sox historic September collapse in the 2011 season and a 11/9 K/BB ratio.

He was Designated for Assignment by the Red Sox (Link) this week hoping he can clear waivers to return to the minors and regain his form. But is it too late?

NBPA: Franchise Hockey Manager review

Franchise Hockey Manager is a new hockey game that is trying to improve on what Eastside Hockey Manager did. The first release was today and I have the game as I helped on the research team.

REVIEW: This game has a lot of potential. It is probably a lot better than many first attempts at video game development. It as of right  now not near the level of OOTP but it is definitely eventually going to go up there in quality.

Graphics: Good looking game for a text-sim. No graphics what so ever. Some glitches and bug but they can be patched. 7.5/10

Gameplay: Some bugs but they can be patched. Gameplay is simulation gameplay and you do not actually control the player. Great hockey manager game especially in the realm of there are multiple leagues with their own individual rules. 8.0/10

 Quality: Good quality especially for the 1st version of a hockey sim. Has so much potential and is the first hockey sim in quite some time. Some small issues however that might make the game unplayable for people. 7.5/10

Overall: Very impressive game it has as much potential as Mike Trout. However potential does not reflect where it is now and has some big issues at release.

FINAL SCORE: 8.0/10