Tuesday, September 10, 2013

How long has Alex Rodriguez really been declining

Alex Rodriguez had an unbelievable 2007 where he hit .314 with 54 home runs and 156 RBIs at the age of 31 but ever since then he has been at a quiet decline. If you look at the basic numbers from 2008-12 you see a player with a .282 average with 129 homers and 447 RBIs. The .282 average is well below his .300 lifetime average but the homers are pretty good. He hit 129 of his 652 home runs in that span. But if you dive into the advanced stats you can see an obvious decline. His XBH% has been down from 12% in 2007 to 9.3% between 2008-12. His AB/HR rate of 10.8 in 2007 is 17.9 between 2008-12.  After striking out 17% of the time in 2007 he has struck out 19% of the time in the same time range and has walked 11.3% compared to a 13.4% in 2007). The last time he posted a WAR above 5 was in 2008 where he had a 6.8 WAR in his last season as a truly great hitter.

His decline has also been off the field as well as he has admitted to steroids in 2009 and has recently been suspended (pending appeal) an unprecedented 211 games because of his connection to the Biogenesis scandal.

 Thanks to baseball-reference.com for providing the access to the stats.

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